Natural
Gas and
Geopolitics
1970-2040
Some
important development
in global energy sector is
happening. This century is
called “Gas Century” and
anticipations in this area
suggest
thatat least during the next
two decades
the growth of demand for
natural
gas would be more than other
energy
carriers. Since the
geography ofnatural gas
reservoir is different from
oil, increasing natural gas
share inglobal energy basket, would change
energy
geopolitics. Consumption
geography is also changing.
Where
in last decades most
increase in
demand were related to
industrial
western countries, in
foreseeable
future the greatest growth
of energy
demand would relate to newly
developed Asian countries
which
in
turn intensify development
in energy
geopolitics.
If the newly developed Asian
countries decide to follow
investment
policy in
upstream sectors of oil
and gas producing countries,
and
also make decision to take
part in
production in accordance
with their
demand, geopolitical
challengeswould increase. This situation
would also generate
noticeable
developments in stance
andperformance
of energy supply key
players in new investment
ventures
and promote level and stance
of
services, design and
engineering
companies.
These are realities which
make the development scene
more
complicated. So recognition
of thesenew developments and mechanism
and future trends is
necessary for allplayers in energy supply area.
With vast reservoir of
natural gas,
and enjoying special
geopoliticalsituation in the world, and Persian
Gulf region, I.R.Iran has a
key role
in providing international
energysecurity.
The
importance of natural gas
in the world energy markets
israpidly increasing. This is because
of relative cleanness of
natural
gascombustion which makes it
selected fuel for various
purposes
especially for power
generation. It
has been anticipated that
through
future decades natural gas
would
enjoy the most rapid growth
among
main energy source and
natural gas
consumption would bedoubled
by 2030 (I.E.A. 2004) and
leaves
behind coal and introduce as
the
second main source of
energy. It also
could overloadoil by 2050.
Recent
price growth and solid
economical
capabilities of natural gas
would
never face it with serious
challengesin
future.Total available
natural gasreservoir is around 350 trillion cubic
meters (T.C.M) which is
equal to
130 years of today’s
consumption
(U.S.G.S.2000) but B.P.
estimationin 2004 suggests that total volume is
176 TCM equal to 70 year of
today’s
consumption.However
removinggeographical, financial and political
obstacles for development of
gas
resource would be more
difficult,
because many rich resource
are veryfar from U.S.A, western Europe,
China, Brazil, India and
other
regions which is been
expected to
have greatest demand growth,
ofcourse technological problems for
high volume of gas transfer
to remote
distances is
rapidly diminishing.At
present 25% of global natural
gas consumption is the
outcome
of international commerce
which
78% is carried
through pipeline or
building LNG facilities,
consisting
vast time and huge
expenditure
and potential investors
would need
sufficient
information about political
and economical of its
background.
International Energy Agency
(I.E.A)estimation suggests that to provide
increasing natural gas
demand from
2003 to 2030 there is a need
for at least
three trillion US dollars
investment.
Most of such
investment is needed
and related to upstream
sector.
Increasing importance of
overseas
commerce of natural gas
would
generate new
political concerns
about natural gas supply
security.In
the past the issue of energy
security
was limited to oil markets
but with
changing
route toward natural gas,
the consumers and
governments
have to consider about same
problem
and issues, this time about
crucial
supplying of natural gas.
New
relation between main
suppliers and
end users countries would
cause
new geopolitical issues in
highest
economical and security
levels.
